Should International Teachers Worry About Recession When Moving to Brazil

If you've been offered a job in Brazil, you're probably reading the headlines about slowing growth and wondering if now's actually the time to move. I get it. But here's the honest version: the recession risk isn't your biggest problem. What matters more is understanding what economic slowdown actually means for your paycheck and how to protect yourself before you sign.

The real risk isn't that Brazil tips into recession. It's that you'll sign a contract that doesn't account for the financial pressures already building. And that's something you can control.

What's Actually Happening with Brazil's Economy

Brazil's not in recession right now. GDP is tracking around 2.2% growth for 2025, which is slow compared to what Brazil's pulled off in the past, but it's roughly in line with the US economy. Nothing to panic over. But here's where it gets uncomfortable: interest rates have climbed to 15% annually. That's brutal. The central bank did this to fight inflation and shore up the currency, which makes sense on paper. In practice, it means everything costs more: credit, loans, business investment. And since teachers often use credit to cover moving costs or early-arrival expenses, those high rates hit you directly.

Most forecasters expect rates to start coming down in early 2026, potentially hitting around 11% by year-end. If that happens on schedule, things should ease. But politics matter. Brazil's holding elections in 2026, and governments sometimes make economically questionable decisions when votes are on the line. So there's a bit of uncertainty built in.

Could Brazil slip into recession in 2026? Sure, it's possible. But it's not the baseline scenario.

What Economic Slowdown Actually Means for International Schools

The good news: international schools in Brazil have weathered previous downturns without massive layoffs. They operate in a relatively insulated market. Wealthy Brazilian families still prioritize private education for their kids even when times get tough. And most international employers throw in housing support and cost-of-living adjustments, which gives you a buffer that local workers don't have.

But slowdown does change things. Hiring gets more cautious. Salary bumps shrink. Five years ago, you might've negotiated 10-15% raises between contracts. Now expect 3-5%, and that's if the school's performing well. Schools also become pickier about rehiring staff. They'll almost never fire you mid-contract, but when it's time for year two, they're more likely to bring in someone cheaper or consolidate positions if enrollment dipped. So relationship-building matters. Be good at your job, document your impact, and get to know leadership early.

Make sure any offer includes a full-year contract with explicit renewal language. Don't accept anything vague like "subject to enrollment." You need clarity.

The Currency Thing (This Actually Matters)

Here's where economic slowdown bites hardest. When growth slows and interest rates stay high, the Brazilian real gets weak against major currencies. That $18,000 salary sounds fine until you actually convert it. A bad exchange rate can wipe out a thousand or two off your annual earnings without the school cutting a single real from your salary.

If you're relocating from the US or UK and planning to send money home, timing matters. Check the real's strength in the months before you move. An unfavorable conversion could cost you 5,000-10,000 reais per year, which is real money when you're already tight on cash.

How to protect yourself: negotiate your salary in USD or GBP with a fixed conversion rate locked into your contract. Or ask for a split—part in dollars, part in reais. Or have the school deposit a chunk to an international account each month so you're not vulnerable to weekly currency swings. Most schools will work with you on this if you ask before signing.

Cost of Living: Do the Math Now

Here's something that trips people up. Some international schools in Brazil pay in real and you absorb inflation. Others have stronger funding and index salaries to USD or EUR. These aren't equivalent offers. Figure out which one you're getting before you commit.

If you're earning in reais, your contract needs to tie salary increases to inflation. Brazil's been running 5-8% inflation lately. If your raise comes in at 3%, you're losing money. Actually losing it. Do the math: gross salary minus taxes minus rent, then check if what's left covers living costs. Don't assume it'll work out.

Rent in São Paulo's expat neighborhoods runs 4,000-8,000 reais monthly for a two-bedroom ($800-1,600 depending on the real). That's already high. If inflation keeps climbing and your salary doesn't, you'll feel the squeeze fast.

The Real Risk: Your Contract

So what should actually worry you? Bad contract terms. An employer that won't guarantee currency protection. A school with murky financials. Schools that've had turnover problems. Those are the real red flags.

Before you sign anything, do this:

Ask HR directly about enrollment trends for the past three years. Are they growing, flat, or shrinking? If they're shrinking in a slow economy, that's a warning sign.

Get names of current teachers and ask them whether the school's actually honored salary commitments. Not general questions. Specific: "Did you get your raise?" "Has inflation adjustment been honored?" "Would you resign if you could?"

Read your contract line by line. It needs to specify:

- Your salary in a currency (ideally USD or EUR)

- What happens to your salary if inflation spikes

- Explicit renewal conditions for year two

- What happens if the school's enrollment drops

If the school won't put this in writing, walk. Schools with solid finances and stable enrollment are happy to commit. Schools that dodge these questions are either in trouble or don't respect teachers enough to be transparent.

Should You Take the Job?

Brazil's economy is softening, sure. But slowing growth isn't a disqualifier. Teachers land jobs in slowdowns all the time and do just fine because schools need qualified staff and most positions come with support you wouldn't get working locally.

What matters is whether this specific offer is solid. Strong school, transparent financials, a contract that protects you. If you've got that, the moderate recession risk in 2026 is manageable. If the offer's vague on any of those fronts, the economic backdrop just makes it riskier.

Move with your eyes open. Ask the hard questions before you sign. That's how you de-risk a Brazil move in 2025.